uk politics odds. PresidentThe UK politics odds are always based on current affairs. uk politics odds

 
 PresidentThe UK politics odds are always based on current affairsuk politics odds  To qualify you need to have a winning double of at least 2 selections

Alarmingly for Sunak, the odds of a Conservative majority are now way out at 10/1 with Coral . This is why we see more movement in political markets compared to other sporting events. If you strictly bet for the UK elections, then a sportsbook that caters to the UK market will be your best bet. Browse the Politics odds and markets & place a bet with Paddy Power™. instead of Republicans, Democrats, and ineffectual third parties. Max payout – £500. In the main opposition party, the odds are always changing on who could be the next leader. The maximum free bet that you can receive under this promotion is £/€50 per day. 5*. These election odds can include markets. The BOE said it sees. Features: - Up to 6 players in a room - Unlimited rooms - Chat functionality - Play if bots or AI, if humans are not present - Automatic room assignment - Pick a cool avatar before joining the room Added on 02. Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for customers in the UK, licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039439-R-319330-007. 30) per selection. Bet on top markets like: USA - Presidential Election 2024; UK - Next General Election; UK - Next Prime Minister. However, there are some markets available for events in other countries as well. These election odds can include markets. Winning party election odds. Online sportsbooks in the United Kingdom provide residents with a variety of creative lines. Bettors need to keep a close eye on the news, as things change quickly in the political landscape. Bettors need to keep a close eye on the news, as things change quickly in the political landscape. Bettors need to keep a close eye on the news, as things change quickly in the political landscape. 68/13 after they won the West Lancashire by-election in February. British Politics - Next Conservative leader after Rishi Sunak Betting Odds. For example, Magnum Ice Creams are priced at 100/1 (100) , and even Prosecco makes an appearance, coming in at 125/1 (125)! The other major UK bookmakers brexit all also offer a substantial selection of Brexit odds. The betting odds should be listed similarly to this: Joe Biden +650. Brexit is the term used for the United Kingdom leaving the European Union, so you can see the term is coined from Britain and exit. Then the state clammed up and the revolution ate its children. Paddy Power, for example, has a Trump-dedicated market offering odds on everything from opening Area 51 to the public to having a US Navy vessel. To qualify you need to have a winning double of at least 2 selections. Whenever there is a key election occurring in one of the countries mentioned above, we will offer election betting odds. While you can bet on current events, you can also bet on future events , such as the year Boris Johnson will be replaced, the next Conservative leader, and the next Labour. Oddspedia is the top source for the latest UK politics odds for various markets. UK Politics Odds. All you need to bet. +5000. These odds have been taken from our UK odds comparison site. The odds in UK politics are based on current events and several factors that can influence the outcome. admin | 20. British Politics Futures | Next Conservative leader after Rishi Sunak. 60. The UK politics odds are always based on current affairs. 216/5 out to third by a small margin. The main political betting odds found at Paddy Power focus on events in Ireland, the UK, and the USA. US Presidential Election 2024 - Winning Party Betting Odds. The price on the Tories. The UK politics odds are always based on current affairs. Since the start of 2023, the incumbent president Joe Biden had a stronghold to win with UK oddsmakers, retaining favouritism across the 20+ companies hosting the market. Tucker Carlson. 5*. In the main opposition party, the odds are always changing on who could be the next leader. Bettors need to keep a close eye on the news, as things change quickly in the political landscape. 0). Fixed Odds & Multiples bets are placed with PPB Counterparty Services Limited which is. UK political betting is as easy as betting on any of your favourite sports, and is quite similar to sports betting, in that it is an informed bet where – with enough research – political punters can have an edge over the odds. 0 6/1 after Labour caused an upset by winning the Batley and Spen by-election. Betfair: Full articles, tips, odds comparison, and analysis on UK and global politics. In the main opposition party, the odds are always changing on who could be the next leader. Have a look at the odds on Liberal Democrats, Greens, Reform UK on our UK - Next General Election outright page and place a bet on the. The UK politics odds are always based on current affairs. Bettors need to keep a close eye on the news, as things change quickly in the political landscape. Now read Paul Krishnamurty's guides to Mid Bedfordshire Tamworth. S. The odds on the Conservatives winning a majority at the next general election shortened to 3. The odds on the UK staying in the European Union continued to plummet this week. Next General Election Odds. 508. 0 5/1, implying a 17% chance. The last odds matched on April-June 2024 were 6. Further down the list, you’ll find Donald Trump’s. Five days before. Next UK Prime minister odds Ladbrokes. -- Politics. Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for customers in the UK, licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039439-R-319330-007. Minimum odds are 3/10 (1. Joe Biden +250. The main political betting odds found at Paddy Power focus on events in Ireland, the UK, and the USA. Whenever there is a key election occurring in one of the countries mentioned above, we will offer election betting odds. However he reflects a key faction in this blue-on-blue. 4%. Bettors need to keep a close eye on the news, as things change quickly in the political landscape. Former Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak, is the current frontrunner in the next Conservative party leader race at odds of 2/1. The UK politics odds are always based on current affairs. Bet365 is an established name in the political betting sites and has a user-friendly website, making it easy for you to place your bets. Online Sports Betting & Odds | Bet with Sky BetThe UK politics odds are always based on current affairs. In the main opposition party, the odds are always changing on who could be the next leader. In the main opposition party, the odds are always changing on who could be the next leader. Joe “The Ice Cream Licker” Biden, the current Prez, is the -300 chalk to win the Donkey nomination and Donald “ Don’t Say It’s A Toupe” Trump is the -330 favorite to win the Elephant nom. The UK politics odds are always based on current affairs. Opt in, and bet £10 on football markets (odds 2. Politics Betting Politics Odds Politics Betting OffersBrowse the Politics odds and markets & place a bet with Paddy Power™. 06 1/18, that chance stands at 95%, compared to 74% in Tamworth and 45% in Mid Bedfordshire. There’s a huge gap between his odds of 500/1 with WH and 66/1 with bet365. If any selection (s) are voided, then the bonus will only apply if the actual number of winning selections is 2 or more. These election odds can include markets. £20 in Free Bets to be used on Sports, £10 in Free Bets to be used on Lotto and 50 Free Spins (20p per spin) credited within 10 hours of bet settlement. Bet £10 and Get £20 In Free Bets. Each free bet lasts for 7 days. The UK politics odds are always based on current affairs. If any selection (s) are voided, then the bonus will only apply if the actual number of winning selections is 2 or more. Politics Betting Politics Odds Politics Betting OffersFind out what can you expect from Bet365 USA in terms of welcome offers, promotions, odds, customer service and more. That’s why many bettors value these more controlled wagers over games of chance. Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for customers in the UK, licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039439-R-319330-007. Join Now. That means Sunak is now the second. 30) per selection. The betting odds should be listed similarly to this: Joe Biden +650; Donald Trump +800; Ron DeSantis +2500; The odds listed above are called American odds. For instance, if it seems that a party leader is in trouble, markets may open on their successor. However he reflects a key faction in this blue-on-blue. British Politics View League. Here’s a look at the current betting odds. For verified UK clients only. Political Gambler: Election predictions, analysis, and tips on UK and US politics. Whenever there is a key election occurring in one of the countries mentioned above, we will offer election betting odds. “If you took a 50,000-pound bet on a football match it would not change the market, because there is enough liquidity, whereas in the (political) betting market a 1,000-, 1,500-pound bet can. In the main opposition party, the odds are always changing on who could be the next leader. politics betting odds, including the 2024 election winner, midterms odds, individual state betting, primaries betting and VP odds. Bettors need to keep a close eye on the news, as things change quickly in the political landscape. Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for customers in the UK, licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039439-R-319330-007. Party to obtain an overall majority of seats View all odds. For instance, if it seems that a party leader is in trouble, markets may open on their successor. 33 – your original $100 plus $83. Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for customers in the UK, licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039439-R-319330-007. UK Politics Betting Irish Politics Odds Election OddsThe UK politics odds are always based on current affairs. The SNP will push ahead with plans to hold a referendum, after they won 64 seats in this week's Scottish parliament election, but no referendum before 2025 is the odds-on favourite at 5/7. Warning: Although the current score, time elapsed, video and other data provided on this site is sourced from "live" feeds provided by third parties, you should be aware that this data may be subject to a. Bet on top markets like: 2020 US Presidential Election; UK - Party Leaders; USA - Trump Specials. Latest Politics news, comment and analysis from the Guardian, the world's leading liberal voice It's a 16/1 shot with Ladbrokes! IndyRef2? Scottish Independence Referendum 6/1 to take place in 2021. The site is user-friendly, they offer a wide array of bets on politics (including action on Australian politics) and their odds stack up well against any of their competitors. For example, if a party leader appears to be in trouble, markets may open on their potential successor. US Politics View League. British Politics Betting Odds. Presidential Election odds are out. In the main opposition party, the odds are always changing on who could be the next leader. S. However, there are some markets available for events in other countries as well. New customers only. The odds for the next leader in the main. Bettors need to keep a close eye on the news, as things change quickly in the political landscape. Fixed Odds & Multiples bets are placed with PPB Counterparty Services Limited which is. Suella Braverman still has surprisingly good chances of becoming the next Tory leader, despite sacking. Then simply place your bet on any sports with a minimum deposit of £10/10€ with single/cumulative odds greater than 1/2 (1. Whenever there is a key election occurring in one of the countries mentioned above, we will offer election betting odds. Mark Zuckerberg. 00+). His timeline and retweets demonstrate that. 012/1 on the Exchange while 2024, when it is scheduled to take place, is 1. UK Election Odds, Prop Bets, and More. For instance, if it seems that a party leader is in trouble, markets may open on their successor. The UK politics odds are always based on current affairs. Bet365 is an established name in the political betting sites and has a user-friendly website, making it easy for you to place your bets. The sportsbook houses a number of U. Joe “The Ice Cream Licker” Biden, the current Prez, is the -300 chalk to win the Donkey nomination and Donald “ Don’t Say It’s A Toupe” Trump is the -330 favorite to win the Elephant nom. Bet365 Weekly Loyalty Bonuses 2019 Bet365 Poker Bonus - When signing up with a new poker room you should always make sure you get the best welcome bonus, as these get you good value in your bankroll building. There are plenty of markets on offer and some pretty sweet bonuses too, to give you a bit more money for your time. Bettors need to keep a close eye on the news, as things change quickly in the political landscape. Get the best available US Politics odds from all online bookmakers with Oddschecker, the home of betting value. For instance, if it seems that a party leader is in trouble, markets may open on their successor. 56/4 favourites to take the seat from the Tories 3. In the main opposition party, the odds are always changing on who could be the next leader. Politics on the Betfair Exchange lets you set the odds yourself on over 17 Politics events. Choose from over 9 Politics competitions, and place a Politics bet, either for an outcome (to Back) or against it (to Lay). The UK politics odds are always based on current affairs. Following the qualifying bet, you will receive 4 free bets that can be used one after another. Those odds partly account for the possibility of a general election being held. Licence Number: MGA/CL3/454/2008 17th March 2015, Triq il-Kappillan Mifsud, St. The second free £10 fixed odds bets will be added to your account on the following day. In a rare three-way political betting heat on the Betfair Exchange the Liberal Democrats are 2. 216/5 out to third by a small margin. Bet on top markets like: USA - Presidential Election 2024; UK - Next General Election;. Bovada – Best for US Presidential and Local Election Markets. November 22, 2023 6:24 pm (Updated 7:04 pm) A spring general election is looking increasingly “likely”, polling experts have said after Jeremy Hunt promised emergency. The UK politics odds are always based on current affairs. In a rare insight. Bet on Politics with Paddy Power™ and browse the latest political betting odds on a wide range of markets. US Presidential Election 2024 - Winner Betting Odds. All you need to bet. BetMGM. However, if you put £1 on a selection valued at 8/1, then you will receive £8 return and £7 profit from your stake. S. £20 credited as 4x £5 Free Bets, valid for 7 days on selected bets only, stakes not returned. 43. Hence, $20 x 11/8 = $27. More Betfair My Betfair RewardsThe UK politics odds are always based on current affairs. 23 2/9 (an 81% chance) and Leave has. MyBookie – This site posts a broad range of creative political lines, including a selection of fun Donald Trump prop bets. Meanwhile, Republicans are not far behind at -105. Top Sites for Betting on Politics. The owner of Ladbrokes, Entain, has been accused of “dishonest” lobbying after it funded an operation mobilising people to complain to their MP. presidential election. The UK politics odds are always based on current affairs. For example, Magnum Ice Creams are priced at 100/1 (100) , and even Prosecco makes an appearance, coming in at 125/1 (125)! The other major UK bookmakers brexit all also offer a substantial selection of Brexit odds. 5m on the 2019 election that saw them bolstered with an 80-seat majority under Boris Johnson. US Presidential Election 2024 - Winner Betting Odds. 21 hours ago · The political parties are already in battle mode and the choice is clear. What are the odds on the UK Politics - Next Scottish Independence Referendum Result? It looks like For Independence (Pass) has the best chance, at odds of 1. Whenever there is a key election occurring in one of the countries mentioned above, we will offer election betting odds. Discover the latest political betting odds, markets, and. However, there are some markets available for events in other countries as well. Bet £10 on Football Get £30 in Free Bets. In the main opposition party, the odds are always changing on who could be the next leader. The UK politics odds are always based on current affairs. For instance, if it seems that a party leader is in trouble, markets may open on their successor. Welcome to betting on U. According to the latest Betfair exchange odds of 1. The odds listed above are called American odds. Licence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for customers in the UK, licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039439-R-319330-007. +4000. A spreader of bad faith talking points, allied to dark forces on the far-Right of UK politics. In the main opposition party, the odds are always changing on who could be the next leader. New customers only. Click "More Odds" to see the full 2024 US Presidential Election betting market or Click here to see the latest election odds. Last modified on Sun 21 May 2023 10. Dive into Politics Odds, featuring Party Leaders and London Mayoral Election Odds. Check out all the details for Chantelle Cameron vs Katie Taylor, as they have their rematch this weekend. View all available outright and match odds, plus get news, tips, free bets and money-back offers. The odds history of a political event shows how the odds have changed over time, while the odds movement shows how the odds are currently trending. These election odds can include markets. For instance, if it seems that a party leader is in trouble, markets may open on their successor. RealClearPolitics - Betting Odds - 2024 U. Bettors must stay updated on the latest news as the political landscape evolves rapidly. Vegas Betting Odds On UK Politics. Bet In-Play Cash Out Political Betting Odds. In the main opposition party, the odds are always changing on who could be the next leader. Get 2020 Election odds, including Democrat and Republican candidates, plus midterm specials and much more. Joe “The Ice Cream Licker” Biden, the current Prez, is the -300 chalk to win the Donkey nomination and Donald “ Don’t Say It’s A Toupe” Trump is the -330 favorite to win the Elephant nom. Legislation is initiated in the. For instance, if it seems that a party leader is in trouble, markets may open on their successor. Politics on the Betfair Exchange lets you set the odds yourself on over 15 Politics events. Bettors need to keep a close eye on the news, as things change quickly in the political landscape. 2%. UK Politics Betting Irish Politics Odds Election OddsThe UK politics odds are always based on current affairs. 30) per selection. 53 through UK-based Betfair. Kemi Badenoch (+500) Penny Mordaunt (+800) Boris Johnson (+900) Badenoch is the leader in the next UK Conservative leader odds list. That's encouraging but less so. The available bets vary from one bookmaker to another, as do the odds. Bettors need to keep a close eye on the news, as things change quickly in the political landscape. Labour majority odds-on at general election in 2024. You can also bet on which party will control the Senate in key swing states, which we will explore further. Which party will win the most seats? View all election betting markets here! UK Politics - Latest Betfair Odds with sacked Braverman 5/1 for next Tory leader Betting. Online sportsbooks in the United Kingdom provide residents with a variety of creative lines. The UK politics odds are always based on current affairs. Bettors most commonly focus on the presidential election, with the 2020 contest between Joe Biden and Donald Trump being a particularly heated event. Most of the UK election odds you’ll find online have to do with the country’s 2024 parliamentary elections and various dramas in the House of Commons and the House of Lords (which are, for you Yanks out there, the UK equivalent of the US House of Representatives and the US Senate). However, there are some markets available for events in other countries as well. These election odds can include markets. In the main opposition party, the odds are always changing on who could be the next leader. The UK ceased being a member of the EU on Jan. In the main opposition party, the odds are always changing on who could be the next leader. In the main opposition party, the odds are always changing on who could be the next leader. Bet on Politics with Paddy Power™ and browse the latest political betting odds on a wide range of markets. However, there are some markets available for events in other countries as well. Single bet only. New customers only. More Betfair My Betfair RewardsClaim the Best welcome offers for Strictly Come Dancing. Bet with the best News and. Bets are also on for Nigel Farage to take the role, despite leaving the Conservative Party decades ago. Single bet only. Minimum odds are 3/10 (1. The more fluctuation there is in prices, the more opportunities there are for the bettors. Following the qualifying bet, you will receive 4 free bets that can be used one after another. To qualify you need to have a winning double of at least 2 selections. The UK politics odds are always based on current affairs. Therefore, find the best value by looking at the varied prices for such betting markets. Only available to new, verified customers residing in the UK that register within the promo period and sign up via Oddschecker. Then to Lucy Salek who has done so much to get herself known in the community. Bettors need to keep a close eye on the news, as things change quickly in the political landscape. The UK politics odds are always based on current affairs. Trump, who served one term as president from 2016-2020, is the shortest price of any potential Republican candidate to win the presidency in 2024. Kevin Hern (+600) and Jim Jordan (+800) are the only other candidates with odds less than +1000. Bet £10 and Get £20 In Free Bets. A person bet a record 500,000 pounds on Biden (about $650,000) to win at 1. The UK politics odds are always based on current affairs. For instance, if it seems that a party leader is in trouble, markets may open on their successor. Politics Betting Politics Odds Politics Betting OffersThe BetOnline. Betting the House. However, if you want options, you should choose an online bookie that offers the most UK general election betting odds. Betting sites may also cover other US politics odds, including party nominees and Senate-based political events. Single bet only. In the main opposition party, the odds are always changing on who could be the next leader. In the main opposition party, the odds are always changing on who could be the next leader. His implied change is 57. Whilst Strictly Come Dancing travels to Blackpool this week, we have the best offers for you to use for the biggest dance show on TV. Eighteen of these seats were held by Democrats, while five were held by Republicans, and one was held by an Independent. 18+ New UK Customers. Join Here. 3 legs per £10 bet; min. Bookies are reporting an uptick in political betting following David Cameron's return to British politics. 30) per selection. Premier League Opta Stats: 10 bets including 5/1 scorer tip and 5/1 Bet Builder at Stamford Bridge. 35/4. S. The UK politics odds are always based on current affairs. Bettors need to keep a close eye on the news, as things change quickly in the political landscape. Check out U. Set up a private room with a password. For example, you might find -400 on Andy Beshear to win the Kentucky gubernatorial election (bet $400 to win $100) and +250 on Daniel Cameron to win it (bet $100 to win $250). odds 2. Get 6x£5 football free bets at specified odds for set markets, which expire after 7 days. 05 1/20 to win. Restrictions & BeGambleAware. Most of the UK election odds you’ll find online have to do with the country’s 2024 parliamentary elections and various dramas in the House of Commons and the House of. A popular politician needs only utter a single misguided phrase to see their political fortunes come crashing down. Restrictions & BeGambleAware. Bettors need to keep a close eye on the news, as things change quickly in the political landscape. S. For example, if a party leader appears to be in trouble, markets may open on their potential successor. That’s why many bettors value these more controlled wagers over games of chance. With the Conservative Party dominating British politics, the election of the party's leader is a popular bet. In the main opposition party, the odds are always changing on who could be the next leader. At odds of 1. Politics on the Betfair Exchange lets you set the odds yourself on over 17 Politics events. Donald Trump +800. If you only want to make a single wager on the UK election, you can do so. The Telegraph’s poll tracker shows the Prime Minister's party now lags behind Labour by around 20 percentage points in voting intention, suggesting the Conservatives are set for heavy losses at. Whenever there is a key election occurring in one of the countries mentioned above, we will offer election betting odds. 28 EST. A £10 bet on this UK Politics result at these odds would win you £18. The biggest market is who will be the UK’s next prime minister. 412/5 who held it in 2019 with a majority of more. His timeline and retweets demonstrate that. Pre-Match or Live. You can find the latest political betting odds at bet365's U. The Tories spent £16. Venera, SVR 1851, MALTA. For example: Joe Biden was 4/7 in 2020, so $20 x 4/7 = $11. UK Politics Betting Irish Politics Odds Election OddsThe main political betting odds found at Paddy Power focus on events in Ireland, the UK, and the USA. View all available outright and match odds, plus get news, tips, free bets and money-back offers. View election betting odds for those candidates and more below. For instance, if it seems that a party leader is in trouble, markets may open on their successor. However, if you’re looking for the kind of novelty bets that we just looked at, then WilliamHill are your best bet. Offer valid from 12:00 UK Time on 25/08/2023. Bettors need to keep a close eye on the news, as things change quickly in the political landscape. For instance, if it seems that a party leader is in trouble, markets may open on their successor. These election odds can include markets. 750. Forgot your username / password ?. Bettors need to keep a close eye on the news, as things change quickly in the political landscape. PresidentLicence Number: MGA/CL2/294/2006 12 March 2013, and for customers in the UK, licensed and regulated by the Gambling Commission, Licence Number: 000-039439-R-319330-007. Politics Betting Politics Odds Politics Betting OffersYou can also make election night that much more interesting with a punt so political betting is a good choice for many areas of our customer base. For instance, if it seems that a party leader is in trouble, markets may open on their successor. The main political betting odds found at Paddy Power focus on events in Ireland, the UK, and the USA. Odds updated 06/01/23. In the main opposition party, the odds are always changing on who could be the next leader. In the main opposition party, the odds are always changing on who could be the next leader. The UK politics odds are always based on current affairs. For instance, if it seems that a party leader is in trouble, markets may open on their successor. It’s perfectly legal to bet on politics at UK betting sites. In the main opposition party, the odds are always changing on who could be the next leader. Whenever there is a key election occurring in one of the countries mentioned above, we will offer election betting odds. Bettors need to keep a close eye on the news, as things change quickly in the political landscape. T&Cs apply. Help. Place a qualifying £10 fixed odds bet at odds of 1/2 or greater. Smarkets betting exchange, is still predicting a chance of a deal as the clock ticks down on the end of the transition period deadline on 31 December. Coinbase is currently one of the biggest, most trusted, and most transparent cryptocurrency banks/brokers in the world. Bettors need to keep a close eye on the news, as things change quickly in the political landscape. Rishi Sunak is currently rated 20% likely to leave office during 2023 at odds of 5. S. Browse the Politics odds and markets & place a bet with Paddy Power™. presidential election. The qualifying bet should start at £10 and have 1. More Betfair My Betfair Rewards An independently standing candidate, former radio show host Fosh wants to win more votes than Laurence Fox. US election odds from multiple sportsbooks reveal a tight contest between the Democratic and Republican parties, with Democrats holding a slight edge in the 2024 presidential election odds at -115 and -111 in Bet365 and BetMGM. Each free bet lasts for 7 days. In the UK, political betting has been a hugely popular activity for many years. For instance, if it seems that a party leader is in trouble, markets may open on their successor. Now read Paul Krishnamurty's guides to Mid Bedfordshire Tamworth. Bettors need to keep a close eye on the news, as things change quickly in the political landscape. Politics Betting Politics Odds Politics Betting OffersBetfair Uk Politics Odds White Sox Odds To Win 2020 World Series Odds To Win National Championship 2020 The 150 Strategy Roulette Beto Getting Teeth Cleaned Unibet Refer A Friend Bonus Heart Of Vegas Casino Promo Codes 3 Card Poker Payout Calculator Quick Hit Super Wheel Wild. UK players only - 18+ - BeGambleAware. More Betfair My Betfair RewardsAction on the 2022 midterms is heating up as Americans head to the polls today. 79 4/5, a timely Brexit on 29/03/2019 is rated 56% likely - slightly down. In the main opposition party, the odds are always changing on who could be the next leader. No Cash-Out. For instance, if it seems that a party leader is in trouble, markets may open on their successor.